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Amanda

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My Statistics book is hilarious! [Feb. 6th, 2006|09:01 am]
Amanda
This problem we got assigned...oh my frickin' goodness!

"On their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.
a. What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly?
b. Would it be "unusual" for him to guess correctly on his first try?
c. If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?
d. If Kelly asks Mike to guess her age, and Mike's guess is too high by 15 years, what is the probability that Mike and Kelly will have a second date?"

I looked up the answer for d) out of curiousity and it said the probability was the following:
"0."

HAHAHAHAHA....I love this textbook. I keep finding all these little random funny things in it!
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: dungeonwriter
2006-02-06 12:18 pm (UTC)
d. If Kelly asks Mike to guess her age, and Mike's guess is too high by 15 years, what is the probability that Mike and Kelly will have a second date?"
E. Given D, What is the probability that Mike is in a world of pain from Kelly's wrath?
Answer: 100%
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[User Picture]From: minuetcat
2006-02-06 03:05 pm (UTC)
Yes, YES!! lol :P
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[User Picture]From: thickerthanair
2006-02-06 12:49 pm (UTC)
I agree with the answer of zero.

I'll be 22 next month, and if mike guessed I was 37, he'd get a punch in the face, and no second date!

lol
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[User Picture]From: minuetcat
2006-02-06 03:03 pm (UTC)
Me too! It's so completely true.
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[User Picture]From: rewhite
2006-02-07 06:14 am (UTC)
We're told that there's never a 0 probability (except in mutually exclusive instances) nor a 1 probability (except within a concurrent sample). Otherwise, we are told to write them as .99 (with a bar, but I can't do that on the computer) or ~0 (the tilda meaning aproximately). I take issue with that and argue that this instance is another exception when there can be an absolute probability.
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[User Picture]From: minuetcat
2006-02-07 11:19 am (UTC)
Yes! Exactly. Unless he gives her a special special gift at the end of it ;);)
Oh goodness I'm perverse...
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[User Picture]From: tetrakatus
2006-02-19 06:52 pm (UTC)
That is pretty funny. But it does illustrate a point about guesses and the psychological consequences of them ;-)
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